Europe is facing years of maximum danger. In an era of reduced US engagement, strengthening deterrence against Russia requires strengthening three interlocking foundations: resources, readiness and resolve.
Europe does not need new trade defence measures to respond to China's export surge. It needs to use its existing powers more decisively to deter coercion, strengthen its negotiating position and restore competitiveness.
Europe has strengthened its resilience and preparedness, but efforts remain fragmented. An EU resilience planning capability would improve coordination, strengthen civilian-military cooperation and help make resilience a core pillar of European deterrence and defence.
China’s critical raw material export squeeze has proven a powerful geo-economic weapon. Initially retaliation against US tariffs and tech restrictions, Beijing’s leverage now advances its far greater ambitions.
Following NATO's summit in Ankara, Europe must move beyond capability development. It is time to assume leadership for defence planning, rehearse for fighting with less US support, and ensure coherence between the various political frameworks.
