Black Sea security scenarios

On 26 April, the EUISS convened a closed-door collaborative scenario-building exercise focused on Black Sea Security in Brussels.

The Black Sea is a maritime space of rising geopolitical significance. Nested between the EU, Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye and the Caucasus, it is a key arena in Russia’s war on Ukraine, but also one where broader geopolitical dynamics play out, with maritime (including seabed infrastructure like cables and pipelines), energy and food security dimensions.

The region is witnessing increased militarisation while regional security management mechanisms are weakening. Meanwhile, it constitutes a crucial node for both existing and potential connectivity schemes like the ‘Middle Corridor’. The event focused on how can the EU strategically approach the region, including through collaboration with partners like NATO, the U.S. and Türkiye. To this end, scenarios and crises unfolding within them were outlined and the EU’s response strategies were discussed and assessed by participants including officials and independent experts.

The experts included: 

• Dimitar BECHEV (Lecturer, University of Oxford)
• Vessela TCHERNEVA (Deputy Director, European Council on Foreign Relations)
• Natia SESKURIA (Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute)
• George SCUTARU (CEO, New Strategy Center Romania)
• Yordan BOZHILOV (President, Sofia Security Forum)
• Mihai Sebastian CHIHAIA (Policy Analyst, European Policy Centre)